Reports for Decision Makers in Security & Public Policy

Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I

This 2017 report from the US government includes:

"This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence."

Extreme Weather and Climate Change

The 2017 study by The Centre for Energy and climate solutions presents work that suggests:

"A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today."

Confronting climate change as an accelerator of crisis

"Development in the Arab region has always been complex, but climate change is now acting as an accelerator of fragility, disrupting ecosystems and triggering displacement. Yet despite this growing complexity, decision making remains focused on sectoral, linear approaches. More integrated policies and institutions are needed that address the multi-dimensional nature of risk today"

Climate change: A catalyst for conflict

"The effects of climate change, alongside other social, economic and political components, contribute to the violence with which conflicts are resolved."  

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

The study links climate change to certain extreme events that decision makers will have to predict and prepare for:

"Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts"

Climate and Social Stress:  Implications for Security Analysis(2013)

A study that looks at climate change in the national security and social stress context:

"During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications"
“potential impacts of climate change on water, energy, and agriculture will make it a central driver of conflict. The impacts of climate change combine to make it a clear threat to collective security and global order in the first half of the 21st Century.” ”
— International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2011:11

A main driver or an intermediate variable? Climate change, water and security in the Middle East

"The nexus between climate change and violent conflict is at the center of intensifying political and academic debate. Yet research on the extent and strength of this relationship remains inconclusive and much of the literature is largely empirical, lacking a sufficient theoretical underpinning. This study advances a conceptual framework linking climate change induced droughts and conflict, in potentially iterative relations"

Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security

"projections of a rapidly growing population, coupled with global climate change, is expected to have significant negative impacts on food security"

How Do We Know That Global Warming Today is Man Made?

Like any detective story, the search for the culprit in the climate change saga takes diligence and the hard and fast rules of scientific investigation. After long and painstaking studies, research has repeatedly found the fingerprints of human activity on current global warming.

How is that possible?

Multiple models and studies have shown that there is a causal correlation between an increase in greenhouse gases and an increase in global temperatures, both of which have been on the rise since the industrial revolution. That is indisputable at this point. Now the reason we can tell that the increases are our fault (rather than due to natural cycles etc..) is because we can actually trace the origins of the greenhouse gases to particular sources, exactly like a fingerprint

fingerprint.jpg

Greenhouse gases from industry have a lighter weight, their 'combined signal' is different than a carbon molecule from natural sources. That is one way we know that human industry and activity is a cause of global warming.

“It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases”
— American Meteorological Society- 2012

All the models used to predict climate change that include human influence come up correct while natural influences either do not correlate or would predict a much different current and future climate than the one we are experiencing. 

In one study researchers managed to "apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions" Read Article 

As for the notorious 3% of studies that supposedly contradict the scientific consensus on climate? Well a new review of those reports shows that they are all flawed.

Source Climate Central

We cannot continue to ignore or deny our part in climate change nor can we shirk our duty to act to mitigate and reverse global warming. 

“The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.”
— American Association for the Advancement of Science (2006)
“Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems”
— IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers (2014)